[Fwd: Mr. Guru]
spark spark@igs.net
Wed, 03 Mar 1999 15:20:31 -0400 (00920510431, 36DD8B7F.F6F9BC08@igs.net)
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
--------------71D0234EA0D43F5170377552
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
--------------71D0234EA0D43F5170377552
Content-Type: message/rfc822
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Content-Disposition: inline
Received: from no_proxy1.modimes.org (mail.modimes.org [209.73.251.2]) by host.ott.igs.net (8.9.1/8.6.12) with ESMTP id NAA02688 for <spark@igs.net>; Wed, 3 Mar 1999 13:55:59 -0500 (EST)
Received: by NO_PROXY1 with Internet Mail Service (5.0.1460.8)
id <FGGXAR5D>; Wed, 3 Mar 1999 13:45:34 -0500
Message-ID: <4127A94F74E6D011B62800805FFE9F480102FBA0@MOD3EMAIL1>
From: "Sherman, Matt" <MSherman@modimes.org>
To: "'spark'" <spark@igs.net>
Subject: RE: Mr. Guru
Date: Wed, 3 Mar 1999 13:56:53 -0500
MIME-Version: 1.0
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.0.1460.8)
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Matt Sherman 007
Bacon Number = 3
Connery Number = 1
JC Number = 0
> ----------
> From: spark[SMTP:spark@igs.net]
> Sent: Wednesday, March 03, 1999 12:03 PM
> To: errancy@infidels.org
> Cc: Sherman, Matt
> Subject: Mr. Guru
>
> SHERMAN
> Now, what I am skilled in is mathematics/probability, the natural
> sciences, logic, Bible exegesis
> and understanding, and astronomy and astronomical theory...
>
> SPARK
> Wow, you're a skillful man! But, if you are so skilled in logic, to
> pick one of your many talents,
> could you tell us how you arrived at this conclusion: "The Bible is
> inerrant (in its original
> manuscripts...)!"
>
> Now, we'll test your mathematics/probability skill. Here is an easy one
> for you:
>
> "There are 3 pancakes in a hat: one is brown on both sides; another is
> golden on both sides;
> and the 3rd is brown on one side and golden on the other. You pull one
> out of the hat at random
> and see that it is brown on the side you are looking at. What is the
> probability of the other side
> being brown?"
>
SHERMAN
0 > [Probability of brown side on obverse side of pancake] < 1
> Ah, but to pass this test, you have to get this one correct as well:
>
> "You and 2 other men are in the same jail cell. One day, the warden
> comes and tells the
> 3 of you that, tomorrow, 1 of you is going to be executed and the other
> 2 are going to be set
> free. Later on, you approach the warden by yourself and ask him to tell
> you who is going to be
> executed. The warden declines your request, saying he is not permitted
> to disclose that
> information. In desperation, you beg him to at least tell you the name
> of 1 person who will
> be set free. The warden gives in and tells you that Charles Manson (one
> of the other prisoners)
> will be set free. You leave the warden feeling even more nervous than
> before, thinking that
> the probability of you being exectued just went up. Did it really go
> up?"
>
SHERMAN
Did it "really go up" between the sentence on execution passing the court
and the discussion with the warden? No.
Now try mine...what are the calculated odds of finding the following
prophecies fulfilled by chance in one person:
Prophecy #1. Micah 5:2
"But you, Bethlehem Ephrathah, Though you are little among the thousands of
Judah, Yet out of you shall come forth to Me The One to be Ruler in Israel,
Whose goings forth are from of old, From everlasting."
What is the probability of this prophecy being fulfilled by any one man? To
determine this, the average population of Bethlehem from the time of Micah
until now would need to be known, as well as the average population of the
earth during the same time period. Stoner (Science Speaks, p. 101-102) came
up with a ratio of 1 man in 280,000 has been born in Bethlehem. It may be
expressed as 1 man in 2.8 x 105 was born in Bethlehem.
Prophecy #2. Malachi 3:1
"Behold, I send My messenger, And he will prepare the way before Me."
The question here is how many men the world over has had a forerunner to
prepare his way? A very conservative estimate would be 1 in 10,000.
Since, according to the Scriptures, this was a special messenger of God,
this estimate is indeed conservative. The estimate may be expressed as 1 in
103.
Prophecy #3. Zechariah 9:9
"Rejoice greatly, O daughter of Zion! Shout, O daughter of Jerusalem!
Behold, your King is coming to you...Lowly and riding on a donkey, A colt,
the foal of a donkey."
One man in how many has entered Jerusalem as a ruler riding on a colt, the
foal of a donkey? Since most rulers entering Jerusalem would do so in a more
dignified manner, an estimate of 1 man in 103 will be used.
Prophecy #4. Zechariah 13:6
"And one will say to him, What are these wounds between your arms? Then he
will answer, Those with which I was wounded in the house of my friends."
How many men in all the world since Zechariah have been betrayed by his
friends and then, as a result, was wounded in the hands? This would appear
to be a quite rare circumstance but in order to be as conservative as
possible, the estimate will be set at 1 man in 1000, or 1 in 103.
Prophecy #5. Zechariah 11:12
"Then I said to them, If it is agreeable to you, give me my wages; and if
not, refrain. So they weighed out for my wages thirty pieces of silver."
Of the people betrayed, how many were betrayed by exactly thirty pieces of
silver. The estimate of one man in 10,000 will be used. It is expressed as 1
in 104.
Prophecy #6. Zechariah 11:13
"And the Lord said to me, Throw it to the potter; that princely price they
set on me. So I took the thirty pieces of silver and threw them into the
house of the Lord for the potter."
This is a very specific prophecy. How many men, after receiving a bribe for
the betrayal of a friend, returned the money only to have it refused and
then the money used to purchase a field from the potter? An estimate of 1 in
10,000 will be used, or, 1 man in 105.
Prophecy #7. Isaiah 53:7
"He was oppressed and He was afflicted, Yet He opened not His mouth; He was
led as a lamb to the slaughter, And as a sheep before its shearers is
silent, So He opened not His mouth."
How many men, after being oppressed and afflicted and is on trial for his
life will make no defense for himself, even though he is innocent? This
would be quite rare no doubt. The estimate of one man in 1000 will be used.
It is expressed as 1 in 103.
Prophecy #8. Psalm 22:16
"For dogs have surrounded Me; The congregation of the wicked has enclosed
Me. They pierced My hands and My feet."
One man in how many since the time of David has been crucified? At one time
this was a common method of execution, therefore the probability of one man
in 1000, or 1 in 103 will be used.
> Good luck!
>
--------------71D0234EA0D43F5170377552--