Mr. Guru

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SHERMAN
Now, what I am skilled in is mathematics/probability, the natural
sciences, logic, Bible exegesis
and understanding, and astronomy and astronomical theory...

SPARK
Wow, you're a skillful man!  But, if you are so skilled in logic, to
pick one of your many talents,
could you tell us how you arrived at this conclusion:  "The Bible is
inerrant (in its original
manuscripts...)!"

Now, we'll test your mathematics/probability skill.  Here is an easy one
for you:

"There are 3 pancakes in a hat:  one is brown on both sides; another is
golden on both sides;
and the 3rd is brown on one side and golden on the other.  You pull one
out of the hat at random
and see that it is brown on the side you are looking at.  What is the
probability of the other side
being brown?"

Ah, but to pass this test, you have to get this one correct as well:

"You and 2 other men are in the same jail cell.  One day, the warden
comes and tells the
3 of you that, tomorrow, 1 of you is going to be executed and the other
2 are going to be set
free.  Later on, you approach the warden by yourself and ask him to tell
you who is going to be
executed.  The warden declines your request, saying he is not permitted
to disclose that
information.  In desperation, you beg him to at least tell you the name
of 1 person who will
be set free.  The warden gives in and tells you that Charles Manson (one
of the other prisoners)
will be set free.  You leave the warden feeling even more nervous than
before, thinking that
the probability of you being exectued just went up.  Did it really go
up?"

Good luck!

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