Noahs inbred family tree

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     Happy New Year Joseph,
     
     
     snipped some
CREA
    You frequently see creationist literature that presents arguments that
the present population is an entirely reasonable extrapolation from Noah & 
family.  However, a little analysis proves this to be one of the 
creationists' weakest links.  I have read Henry Morris stating that the 
entire current population can be accounted for if we assume a doubling rate 
of 150-170 years.  This, of course assumes an absolutely uniform rate of 
growth and ignores wars, famines, pestilences, etc.  The fatal flaw in this 
scenario is that if it is true, then when Moses began the Exodus there were 
less than 100 persons living in the entire world (and Exodus claims that 
some 600,000 men of fighting age along with their fathers, mothers, wives, 
sisters and minor children were involved!).
     
DAVIS
        What it does demonstrate is that creationists aren't very good at 
math and that the assumptions regarding growth rates and mortality rates 
are invalid. The Institute for Creation Research folks' mathematical models 
tend to be overly simple. (Remember the average education level of 
fundamentalists who buy ICR books!)

The world's net population historically doesn't double at anywhere near 
that rate. Try re-running the numbers with the following assumptions:

1) An equal number of males and females are born each generation

2) All children live to full reproductive adulthood

2) The entire race procreates (i.e. all couples produce children)

3) Each breeding couple produces only four children (i.e. doubles) then 
dies.

When you use these parameters and a basic spreadsheet program, you'll end 
up taking only 33 biblical 40-year generations (about 1,280 years) to 
achieve over 8 billion living population. (For a real chuckle, try running 
the numbers out to the ICR's earth age of 6000 years and see what you get!)

When run with a population doubling every 160 years, as Morris is cited as 
claiming, (splitting the difference between 150 and 170), it takes 5,121 
years to reach 8.6 billion population. 

Thus, the creationists can prove there had to be a flood! (Notice my tongue 
firmly in my cheek here!!) Otherwise, with Morris's 6,000 year old earth, 
we'd have almost 275 billion humans born in this generation.  The only 
problem is that we're missing about 269 billion people... (Or could it be 
that ICR's simplistic models are ridiculous???)

M Davis

     

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