Probabilities

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In a message dated 22/8/97  18:40:33, you write:


>> TILL

>> This may give you an idea of how much of a mathematical klutz I am, but

why

>> wouldn't "3.76E4" be "37600"?  You later identified  "5.37E8" as

>> 537,000,000, which requires the decimal point to shift right eight times,

so

>> why wouldn't "3.76E4" be "37600"?  I want to make sure I understand all of

>> this before I try to use a probability argument in a debate.

> Jeff Epler:

> Yes, I screwed up at least at that once place.


Paul Robson:
I suspect these came straight off a calculator :) It might be better to
express the idea in terms easier understood, as you're going to have
to use exponential notation anyway, because the probability values get
very small (big if you like) very fast. I liked the "cubic yards" idea - how
about expressing it in terms of say grains of sugar in a bowl.

I'd be *very* careful about using this argument in debate. It is one
of those arguments that sounds great but doesn't really mean anything
(rather like Lenny's sermons). You might alienate some of the more
"thinking" members of your audience. The Xians will probably 
ignore you anyway, but they'd probably ignore whatever you said or
did. (except to shout "Spawn of Hell" occasionally).

I suppose it'd be ok as a retort to one of the meaningless xian 
arguments about probability, satirising it.

Most people don't know much about probability - look at the way 
people treat the lottery. (The UK lottery has been described 
(fairly accurately IMHO) as "a tax on the stupid"). The sums 
are all ok, but the data has no validity.

Interesting really. I'm not a Biblical expert, but if the inerrantists
Biblical arguments are ten times better than their statistical ones,
they'd still be complete drivel. Their probability arguments make
the LLL trilemma look like the Theory of Relativity.

Paul Robson (autismuk@aol.com)

[Maybe we should have a Java App for the errancy website :)
 If you really want one I'll write it !]

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